Which IPO is worth buying?

Most IPO'a are over priced imo. So once the ipo is over most of them fall down in price. It's better to wait after an ipo is over if you want to buy something. Even if the price increases, you can still buy stocks a few less than what you would have got in the ipo. People having old stocks will always sell.
 
Go with 5 star rated mutual funds. Think in decades not months and years and you will die rich. IPOs are risky.

value research online is the best source.

Stay away from other sponsored apps :)
 
IPO is a way for the initial investors to sell their stocks at the highest possible price to public. So they are almost always overpriced.

IPOs only give listing gains when market sentiments at the time of IPO release are bullish in the short term where retail investors are willing to buy anything at any price. Even bad companies sometimes gain good listing gains whereas good companies like HDFC AMC and Astron Paper mills get blockbuster listings.

In case you are looking for listing gains then do not invest in IPOs until central elections because markets will be very volatile in coming months. If you are looking from a longer term perspective even then I'd suggest that you still wait it out or buy some quality stocks which have withered a bit too much in recent months.
 
You must be very careful with IPOs. They tend to be presented as super-buy-story and within a few days from IPO investors realize how much they were overpriced. Especially during these days when many equities are on a bearish move
 
not indian but one of my friends was trying to get me to buy this;
http://fortune.com/2018/10/11/biotech-allogene-ipo/
Just buy max 4/5 5 star rated mutual funds and make sure you have 2 ELSS funds if you are salaried. Around 10/15k a month should be done in ELSS funds. Don't get into IPOs.

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/tax/

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=15889

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=15688

These are the two I do for sure every month.
 
Short answer - Don't buy IPOs most of them fail.

Long answer - Do your research. One of the easiest way is to open your eyes and see around you and find companies which interest you.

In last couple of years, I have bought all supermarket related IPOs looking at the growing urban population and need for a streamlined buying experience (though I don't agree to the quality of products). Two names on top of my head are Dmart and Future Retail.

Last year I read a mint article on how GST changed the logistics game. I found the logic to be sound and put in money in all the logistic companies I could find. Two IPOs which I bought were - Future Logistics and M&M Logistics. If you look at it, bets on supermarket has paid off but logistics haven't done good. But then I believe in long term it should work.

But, if you are not up to the research go for MF and ELSS. That way you get a professional to vet and research companies on your behalf.
 
Just buy max 4/5 5 star rated mutual funds and make sure you have 2 ELSS funds if you are salaried. Around 10/15k a month should be done in ELSS funds. Don't get into IPOs.

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/tax/

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=15889

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=15688

These are the two I do for sure every month.

PF and PPF are the most risk proof means for 80C exemptions. My 80C limit is easily finished with 1.5 Lac in just PPF.

Personally, I don't see much point to ELSS funds in comparison to other equity fund categories except for the tax exemption bit. It is touted to have the highest returns among the tax saving investments, but they do fall into "moderately high" risk category like all other equity funds and that means you could stand to have not just high returns but also negative returns. The other much touted point is the lowest lock in period at 3 years, but then again, for somebody who thinks that they might need their locked in money back in a short time frame, investing in a high risk high return fund is hardly ideal.
 
PF and PPF are the most risk proof means for 80C exemptions. My 80C limit is easily finished with 1.5 Lac in just PPF.

Personally, I don't see much point to ELSS funds in comparison to other equity fund categories except for the tax exemption bit. It is touted to have the highest returns among the tax saving investments, but they do fall into "moderately high" risk category like all other equity funds and that means you could stand to have not just high returns but also negative returns. The other much touted point is the lowest lock in period at 3 years, but then again, for somebody who thinks that they might need their locked in money back in a short time frame, investing in a high risk high return fund is hardly ideal.
You are comparing ever declining 8 % returns of PPF VS solid 12-18% for ELSS. "Moderately risk' means nothing really in the LONG RUN 10+ years. Do some more research :)

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=26860&utm_medium=vro.in

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=32274&utm_medium=vro.in

Direct comparison of PPF @ 8 % and ELSS @ 20.70% (Axis ELSS)

PPF.JPG


ELSS.JPG


ELSS 2.JPG
 
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The point with equity is that that you don't have any means of knowing how its going be 10,15, 20 years in future.You can't judge it based on purely historical performance either. For example, an economic recession could easily vaporize years worth of equity gains like in 2008. Basically you are taking a risk for higher returns. This is fine if you have sufficient funds to diversify and invest in both moderately safe options and risky options, But if you have very limited money to invest and can only afford to invest in one of the options for your corpus, it does not make a lot of sense to invest all of it in an option that is unpredictable.

ELSS funds are not much different from any other equity funds except for the 3 year lock in and qualifying for 80C exemptions. They fall into the Moderately High risk category like most equity mutual funds. Their returns are taxable under LTCG rules just like other equity funds. So, assuming the case of a person who has sufficient funds to invest in multiple options and has already built some corpus in PF/PPF, the equity mutual fund investment can be in any type of fund with good returns and not specifically ELSS.
 
1) The point with equity is that that you don't have any means of knowing how its going be 10,15, 20 years in future : Indian economy is very aggressive. It is actually the fastest growing large economy in the world. Sensex is bound to go up .. although it is never linear.
2) Even if you look back and go with some 5 star rated funds they still have given almost twice returns as compared to PPF % which the gov keeps on reducing every year anyway.
2008 although can happen again but extreme situations like these don't happen frequently. Even if we assume something like 2008 will happen soon again check this ELSS fund that is going strong since 1996.

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=24

Return since launch : 1996 ... saw 2008 ... 24.41 %. That is crazy good :)
Historically only 2 % investors stay invested for more than a decade and the real magic of compound interest starts after a decade.

See 10 years: 66 lakhs
ELSS 3.JPG


Then 15 years: 2.4 crores .. it almost increased 4 times in 5 years after a decade of staying regularly invested
ELSS 5.JPG


3) Yes they are essentially mutual funds with lock in period of 3 years hence the tax rebate. We need to pay taxes anyway. No use worrying about it.


The point with equity is that that you don't have any means of knowing how its going be 10,15, 20 years in future.You can't judge it based on purely historical performance either. For example, an economic recession could easily vaporize years worth of equity gains like in 2008. Basically you are taking a risk for higher returns. This is fine if you have sufficient funds to diversify and invest in both moderately safe options and risky options, But if you have very limited money to invest and can only afford to invest in one of the options for your corpus, it does not make a lot of sense to invest all of it in an option that is unpredictable.

ELSS funds are not much different from any other equity funds except for the 3 year lock in and qualifying for 80C exemptions. They fall into the Moderately High risk category like most equity mutual funds. Their returns are taxable under LTCG rules just like other equity funds. So, assuming the case of a person who has sufficient funds to invest in multiple options and has already built some corpus in PF/PPF, the equity mutual fund investment can be in any type of fund with good returns and not specifically ELSS.
 
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Most people don't invest in PPF as a SIP though its meant to be a systemic investment instrument. I invest a lump sum of 1.5 lac (max you can invest) at the start of the financial year. I currently get 80k+ interest on it per year and similarly 90k+ interest on PF. All interest earned on these schemes is exempt from tax and no govt dares to change status quo on this for fear of back lash. Think of these as debt funds with no taxation. Currently, there is a plan to allow subscribers of PF to select a percentage of their contributions towards equity investment. Pretty similar to how NPF earns a variable return rate. Of course, the downside is that there could be lower returns too in a bad year. PPF will also likely follow suit if its implemented for PF. In addition, I also keep some corpus kept as Fixed deposits even if I know that the returns are barely enough to cover even inflation.

I invest about 4 lac+ in equity mutual funds (Smallcap, Midcap and Multicap) which I plan to increase even further. I will however never dream of redirecting the 1.5 lac I invest in PPF towards equity mutual funds just on the potential gamble of earning a bit more. Equity investing is a gamble all said and done and should be recognized as such. Even a fund manager/investor who is a ninja in stock market investing cannot change that. A mere rumor can affect the markets in ways that we cannot anticipate.

So, like with any gambling, people should maintain some boundaries for themselves and practice moderation. I work in the regulated online gambling and believe me, I know how easy it is to for people to get addicted to the prospect of high returns. I have a friend who has put all his savings in the stock market over last 12 years. Why? Because, he thought why put in PPF @ 8%, FD @ 7% or even mutual funds at 20% when you can potentially make even higher returns ranging from 40% to 400% in the stock market. He currently has negative returns of 12 lac on his portfolio and when he need money for something last year, he had to sell some of his stock at a time when the market is down and some of the stocks have fallen anywhere from 30-80%.

Just to give one example of volatility, Yes Bank has trading close to Rs 400 last year and was predicted to go above Rs 450 as per several analysts. Many investors and fund houses have this stock in their portfolio. One decision of RBI preventing its chairman from continuing for another term and Yes Bank stock plunged to below 250 in 2 days and below 180 in a few more days.

Bottom-line, I am not saying that one should not invest in high risk/high return instruments like equity mutual funds or even stock market directly, I am saying that you should put some amount towards tax free and safe long term investments like PF and PPF first before going for more risk.
 
Most people don't invest in PPF as a SIP though its meant to be a systemic investment instrument. I invest a lump sum of 1.5 lac (max you can invest) at the start of the financial year. I currently get 80k+ interest on it per year and similarly 90k+ interest on PF. All interest earned on these schemes is exempt from tax and no govt dares to change status quo on this for fear of back lash. Think of these as debt funds with no taxation. Currently, there is a plan to allow subscribers of PF to select a percentage of their contributions towards equity investment. Pretty similar to how NPF earns a variable return rate. Of course, the downside is that there could be lower returns too in a bad year. PPF will also likely follow suit if its implemented for PF. In addition, I also keep some corpus kept as Fixed deposits even if I know that the returns are barely enough to cover even inflation.

I invest about 4 lac+ in equity mutual funds (Smallcap, Midcap and Multicap) which I plan to increase even further. I will however never dream of redirecting the 1.5 lac I invest in PPF towards equity mutual funds just on the potential gamble of earning a bit more. Equity investing is a gamble all said and done and should be recognized as such. Even a fund manager/investor who is a ninja in stock market investing cannot change that. A mere rumor can affect the markets in ways that we cannot anticipate.

So, like with any gambling, people should maintain some boundaries for themselves and practice moderation. I work in the regulated online gambling and believe me, I know how easy it is to for people to get addicted to the prospect of high returns. I have a friend who has put all his savings in the stock market over last 12 years. Why? Because, he thought why put in PPF @ 8%, FD @ 7% or even mutual funds at 20% when you can potentially make even higher returns ranging from 40% to 400% in the stock market. He currently has negative returns of 12 lac on his portfolio and when he need money for something last year, he had to sell some of his stock at a time when the market is down and some of the stocks have fallen anywhere from 30-80%.

Just to give one example of volatility, Yes Bank has trading close to Rs 400 last year and was predicted to go above Rs 450 as per several analysts. Many investors and fund houses have this stock in their portfolio. One decision of RBI preventing its chairman from continuing for another term and Yes Bank stock plunged to below 250 in 2 days and below 180 in a few more days.

Bottom-line, I am not saying that one should not invest in high risk/high return instruments like equity mutual funds or even stock market directly, I am saying that you should put some amount towards tax free and safe long term investments like PF and PPF first before going for more risk.
Be safe :)
 
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I think there has to be balance on both sides on equity and PPF/EPF etc.

There has to be a good portfolio allocation, a good starting point is 60-40 (60 in stocks and 40 in FD/EPF/PPF etc). Depending on how much risk someone wants to take on it can 30-70 or 70-30 too.

The example of Yes Bank is rather extreme one. Things happen in short term doesn't mean things will not improve in long term. From what I can see on Google finance - Yes bank traded at 100 in June 2013 and within 2 months it has halve at 48. But, where are we now? Even with the drop it is sitting at 200 or 100% or 400% increase depending on where it was bought. So, the halving in short term doesn't matter. If Yes Bank is a good business, this whole thing will be long forgotten.

Additionally, as Kahneman has put it - individual investor should look at their holdings on a quarterly. If they are swayed by constant stream of information the only way they can save themselves is by locking themselves in a 3yr fund like ELSS and forget the keys.

On the other hand, stock market grows forever but businesses don't. So care has to be taken care of selecting a good fund. Thankfully we are in India with lots of untapped growth which means a person with even half a brain selecting only big stocks can get 10-15% annual growth over long period easily. But there are tons of funds with conflict of interests. So, it always help to be slightly careful.

That said, @John4321 I have been looking over the list. And while I still can't tell you what to buy, I can tell you at least one stock not to buy. That is Anmol Biscuits. One of my family member runs distribution for it and he as an insider doesn't have good things to say about it. He told me lots of stories about how they strong arm retailers into selling these crap biscuit.

So, I guess pro-tip: If you are buying some FMCG stocks, it is easy to see where things are going by asking couple of shopkeepers and/or watching the item numbers at supermarkets. Just takes couple of visits over a month or two. Are the products getting sold or just sitting there? Relying on company narratives can be harmful as people buying into story of Manpasand Beverages found out.
 
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