Demonetisation and its Aftermath

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Privatisation is a bad word in India. Privatisation means board is sacked and new directors are put in place. Instead they use this term disinvestment. Board is retained.

I can't see banks being privatised. indira moved against them in the 70s because they refused to move into smaller towns as it wasn't profitable. So she took them over and forced them to open branches, loss making all over the place. For social reasons.

When Modi says he wants banking for all, that is what Indira was doing back then

 

[Crapmypants]

By Crimping black money its affecting supply of white money ? that make any sense

Demonetisation missed the black money and put everybody's white money out of their reach.
It's like DRM in games; the paying users bear unnecessary hardship instead of the pirates.

 

[blr_p]

hmm, if its white why is there a problem though. There is more checking, they want this and that. But supply shouldn't be affected i'd have thought

 

[aok]

From back in Sept 2017

https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Swaminomics/why-demo-gst-are-not-to-blame-for-slowdown/





Happy ?

Well.. that is an opinion.
Even if this is true.. this is just pointing more fingers towards the current Government.. as to what caused an export stagnation for three years.

India’s GDP growth has fallen four quarters in a row to just 5.7% in April-June, down from 7.9% in the same quarter last year. No longer is India the world’s fastest growing major economy — it has sunk well below China’s 6.5%. Manufacturing is the worst sector, with just 1.7% growth. So much for “Make in India” or “achhe din”.
Opposition parties have blamed demonetisation (or DeMo).The government blames pre-GST disruptions. These are distractions. The biggest problem is export stagnation for three years.

 

[blr_p]

Well.. that is an opinion.
Even if this is true.. this is just pointing more fingers towards the current Government.. as to what caused an export stagnation for three years.

The same factors that caused the price of oil to crash around the time this govt entered office.

A global lack of demand. Even China's growth slowed

And that is just one reason. He also mentioned the pre GST disruptions.

Economy is complicated

 

[chiron]

This is exactly the sort of opposition rhetoric i'm ignoring.

What about my question? Was demonetization the sort of move that a decent peson would condone?

 

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What does decent have to do with this ? there was a stated objective which failed.

I didn't enjoy finding out notes were being replaced. It was a hassle and a PITA

 

[aok]

The same factors that caused the price of oil to crash around the time this govt entered office.

A global lack of demand. Even China's growth slowed

And that is just one reason. He also mentioned the pre GST disruptions.

Economy is complicated

Oil price might've crashed.. but the Govt reaped. They increased the central excise duty several times during then. The oil price crash turned out to be a great harvest for the Govt. So please don't put your blame on oil prices.

Economy might be complicated.. but crashing GDP growth rates is a good enough indicator to tell you that the Govt is performing dismally bad. And don't blame it on the global economic situation.. Now is not the global recession of 2009

 

[nimod]

hmm, if its white why is there a problem though. There is more checking, they want this and that. But supply shouldn't be affected i'd have thought

^^^
This was a joke really, to me.

What does decent have to do with this ? there was a stated objective which failed.

I didn't enjoy finding out notes were being replaced. It was a hassle and a PITA

PITA?!
It was death to many innocents!

 

[blr_p]

Oil price might've crashed.. but the Govt reaped. They increased the central excise duty several times during then. The oil price crash turned out to be a great harvest for the Govt. So please don't put your blame on oil prices.

The lack of demand is what led to export stagnation and hence GDP drop. Now, you have gone on a tangent to something else

yes they have increased excise duty to raise revenues for expenditures. Development costs, the last govt ran fiscal deficits galore and didn't upgrade things. Defence budgets come and expire, next year same story. Similar story with railways. When do we catch up with the backlog ? or would you like to remain in the same state for the next ten years.

This is a contentious point for sure. Everybody would prefer govt allocate revenue to what they like.

I've never seen govt pass on savings to consumers when oil prices reduce, they always mop up the revenue for other things. Then when people start yelling drop excise duty. And when you do that the fiscal deficit goes up. Which then affects the country ratings and increases cost of borrowing capital

https://energy.economictimes.indiat...t-indias-fiscal-deficit-badly-moodys/64621811

Economy might be complicated.. but crashing GDP growth rates is a good enough indicator to tell you that the Govt is performing dismally bad. And don't blame it on the global economic situation.. Now is not the global recession of 2009

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As swamy pointed out, you can see the GDP dropping by 1.6% already before notes ban. Now how does one calculate the weightage of notes ban responsible for the fall from 7 to 5.7% a smaller drop btw than the 9.1 to 7.5% that preceded it ?

You have slackening demand and GST disruptions to factor in

I have no clue. But some want to attribute everything here and its clearly flawed. Of course it is because they are making politics out of it.

 

[chiron]

What does decent have to do with this ? there was a stated objective which failed.

I didn't enjoy finding out notes were being replaced. It was a hassle and a PITA

It wasn't a hassle. It was unethical. You continue to not address that aspect. Unlike corruption which goes on and will go on behind curtains this was a decision that let innocent be punished so that some guilty "might" be punished. And then as you claim it "failed" and still people keep being righteous and defending the actions of this criminal government. The way I see it Modi and co deserve to be behind bars more than Lalu ever did.

Also, when RBI said 99% of the notes came back it just seems to me that they aren't admitting that more than 100% of it did. I wonder how that could possibly happen.

 

[guest_999]

It wasn't a hassle. It was unethical. You continue to not address that aspect. Unlike corruption which goes on and will go on behind curtains this was a decision that let innocent be punished so that some guilty "might" be punished. And then as you claim it "failed" and still people keep being righteous and defending the actions of this criminal government. The way I see it Modi and co deserve to be behind bars more than Lalu ever did.

Also, when RBI said 99% of the notes came back it just seems to me that they aren't admitting that more than 100% of it did. I wonder how that could possibly happen.

And there goes whatever credibility this reply had in eyes of a neutral person. At least give some decent analogy instead of quoting a leader whose name is synonymous with fodder scam & jungle raj & who claimed himself to be in the same league as "Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther and Babasaheb Ambedkar" after being convicted by court.

 

[chiron]

Of course, I'm not neutral about this government. Lalu is probably the most infamous of the corrupt politicians but I don't think he has caused as much harm to the country as the current government. I used to be indifferent about all of the past governments including BJP/3rd front etc but the current one is scary to me. The key distinction is that I don't think any of them could have pulled of something like demonetization and still stayed in office. I guess Congress up to when Rajiv Gandhi was around could have but I was too young to know what went on in those days.

 

[NotMyRealName]

I'll try and put this in a very simple, albeit crude, way. The previous govt., lalu etc. may have scammed and stole from govt. coffers. The present govt. is stealing directly from our pockets, and legally too because they just changed laws (money bill) and tax rates and structures to suit their thievery. So no, the previous scams are nothing compared to what's going on. People seriously need to open their eyes and see what's really going on...

 

[guest_999]

Of course, I'm not neutral about this government. Lalu is probably the most infamous of the corrupt politicians but I don't think he has caused as much harm to the country as the current government. I used to be indifferent about all of the past governments including BJP/3rd front etc but the current one is scary to me. The key distinction is that I don't think any of them could have pulled of something like demonetization and still stayed in office. I guess Congress up to when Rajiv Gandhi was around could have but I was too young to know what went on in those days.

If the current govt is scary to you then I don't know what more to say except that you will most likely have even worse experience in store in future(& that includes non-bjp/non-modi govt).

I'll try and put this in a very simple, albeit crude, way. The previous govt., lalu etc. may have scammed and stole from govt. coffers. The present govt. is stealing directly from our pockets, and legally too because they just changed laws (money bill) and tax rates and structures to suit their thievery. So no, the previous scams are nothing compared to what's going on. People seriously need to open their eyes and see what's really going on...

It is indeed simple & crude but like most things simple & crude it is also not correct. People indeed seriously need to open their eyes & see that govt's money is not different from "your pocket's money" & when govt sinks lakhs of crores in giving subsidies(petrol,diesel,kerosene,fertilizers,railways,air india,bsnl,public sector banks,farm loan waivers,MSP) then it is this money from your pocket that is going to end up as waste including the portion that ends up in politicians & bureaucrats pockets. Now given how cunning our politicians are why would they need to even steal it legally from your pockets when you yourself are asking them to take it from yourself(aka all so called protests for more loan waivers,more diesel subsidy,more cheaper fertilizer,more MSP etc).

 

[NotMyRealName]

It is indeed simple & crude but like most things simple & crude it is also not correct. People indeed seriously need to open their eyes & see that govt's money is not different from "your pocket's money" & when govt sinks lakhs of crores in giving subsidies(petrol,diesel,kerosene,fertilizers,railways,air india,bsnl,public sector banks,farm loan waivers,MSP) then it is this money from your pocket that is going to end up as waste including the portion that ends up in politicians & bureaucrats pockets. Now given how cunning our politicians are why would they need to even steal it legally from your pockets when you yourself are asking them to take it from yourself(aka all so called protests for more loan waivers,more diesel subsidy,more cheaper fertilizer,more MSP etc).

You obviously didn't understand the point or you have an agenda. Every govt. is corrupt to an extent, and every govt. steals. That's the main reason most people get into politics, to make tons of money. But this govt. is directly attacking my wallet, and i'm sure many others are feeling the pinch too. Right from the start they've been anti-common man. Their first budget was unbelievable pro-big business, and i feel one of the biggest blows later was increasing service tax from 12.36% to 14%, then adding SBC and KKC to make it 15%. Everyone knows what they did with fuel pricing. So if you didn't understand the word 'directly', no point ranting about subsidies and waivers.

The other person was absolutely correct in saying that even a person like Lalu pales in comparison to what this govt. is doing. And the not so funny reality is that most people are supporting them because they hate rahul and/or muslims.

 

[nimod]

If the current govt is scary to you then I don't know what more to say except that you will most likely have even worse experience in store in future(& that includes non-bjp/non-modi govt).


It is indeed simple & crude but like most things simple & crude it is also not correct. People indeed seriously need to open their eyes & see that govt's money is not different from "your pocket's money" & when govt sinks lakhs of crores in giving subsidies(petrol,diesel,kerosene,fertilizers,railways,air india,bsnl,public sector banks,farm loan waivers,MSP) then it is this money from your pocket that is going to end up as waste including the portion that ends up in politicians & bureaucrats pockets. Now given how cunning our politicians are why would they need to even steal it legally from your pockets when you yourself are asking them to take it from yourself(aka all so called protests for more loan waivers,more diesel subsidy,more cheaper fertilizer,more MSP etc).

have courage and talk about subsidies/freebies to MPs, MLAs, loans to friends/relatives of these politicians, effortless NPA branding of loans, immunity from investigations/prosecutions..

 

[chiron]

It is a bit frustrating finding it so hard to put such a simple point across. I am not talking about politics, in fact the sort of "bhakt" ganging up/trolling in social media was pioneered by the communists in Kerala before BJP scaled up to the national level. The scary aspect to me is they they took away my fiduciary money. What meaning is there to the concept of a country if you take away that?

 

[blr_p]

It wasn't a hassle. It was unethical. You continue to not address that aspect. Unlike corruption which goes on and will go on behind curtains this was a decision that let innocent be punished so that some guilty "might" be punished. And then as you claim it "failed" and still people keep being righteous and defending the actions of this criminal government. The way I see it Modi and co deserve to be behind bars more than Lalu ever did.

I defend the actions of this govt in other cases but not this one. Because its a right wing party behaving like a left wing. The sort of BS the AAP party would pull if god forbid they ever came to power, not BJP. I've heard people interview around the country at the time and the impression was people were happy that the rich are in trouble now. Class warfare.

What is black money ? your money you earned either by assets of value or business. Money you cut the govt out of. If you can get away by denying the govt their cut, then more strength to you

People who rail about black money are beggars, they can't make any and they would like it if others could not as well .This govt pandered to these people. Ethics ? whose ethics. This is the politics of the poor. Where its acceptable to write off farmer loans in effect a bailout of a powerful lobby but withholding isn't allowed.

As a result of this anti-corruption drive, everything has to be tracked when it wasn't necessary earlier and its debatable if all these extra checks really help. They certainly help the govt track things and people better. Which people. The most productive. People say they want clean politics and clean govt, what isn't realised is you the common guy are also going to be put to task as well. You have to be clean too.

Not a problem if you don't even qualify to pay taxes and instead are dependent on handouts. Less black money = more handouts. This is the myth being peddled

This is the politics of the poor. Others must not be allowed to become too successful because they must be crooks and should be watched in the interests of whom ?

The choice is between a party that ostensibly caters to the aspirational classes with the occasional left wing nod or an opposition that is pro poor, will not do development and price fix everything, ensure handouts and ignore economics.

Also, when RBI said 99% of the notes came back it just seems to me that they aren't admitting that more than 100% of it did. I wonder how that could possibly happen.

I don't fully understand this point and its been raised by others as well

 

[guest_999]

You obviously didn't understand the point or you have an agenda. Every govt. is corrupt to an extent, and every govt. steals. That's the main reason most people get into politics, to make tons of money. But this govt. is directly attacking my wallet, and i'm sure many others are feeling the pinch too. Right from the start they've been anti-common man. Their first budget was unbelievable pro-big business, and i feel one of the biggest blows later was increasing service tax from 12.36% to 14%, then adding SBC and KKC to make it 15%. Everyone knows what they did with fuel pricing. So if you didn't understand the word 'directly', no point ranting about subsidies and waivers.

The other person was absolutely correct in saying that even a person like Lalu pales in comparison to what this govt. is doing. And the not so funny reality is that most people are supporting them because they hate rahul and/or muslims.

So every govt is corrupt & people get into politics to make money,then why are you even wasting your time complaining. You talk like getting killed by a slow poison over a period of time is better than getting killed by a bullet instantaneously. BJP govt looted money from your pocket in 4 years & Lalu will loot the same money in indirect ways in 10 years,end result will still remain same. Also it is quite amusing to see people talking about pro-business like some sort of disease & yet same people going crazy over buying iphones & considering their life's purpose fulfilled by getting a green card(& just to be clear anybody who claims he doesn't want green card is most likely the one who can't get it anyway excl. of course rich enough people who may prefer UK). As for service tax do you know the India's position in HRD ranking,it is 131.How much money do you think is required to improve that,rest assured that even 15% service tax is not enough for this with the current policies govt is following(aka privatization not allowed).You talk about fuel pricing & sure govt made lots of money but what about the huge losses incurred by oil companies in the previous 10 years period or do you meant to say that profit & loss is a concept based on period & a company making profit of 100Cr in 4 years time at public's expense is guilty while conveniently forgetting about the 1000Cr loss it made in 10 years before that helping the same people(just to be more clear -1000(in 10 yrs)+100(in 4 yrs) =still 900Cr in loss).

have courage and talk about subsidies/freebies to MPs, MLAs, loans to friends/relatives of these politicians, effortless NPA branding of loans, immunity from investigations/prosecutions..

Courage is to talk about your own shortcomings not blaming others for all problems. Courage is to admit that India's own people don't care much about democracy & select such people to parliament in the first place(btw how many clean candidates you supported by your votes in your local area,MLA & MP elections even if they lost). Courage is to admit that yes being an honest tax payer you face the brunt of taxes but that does not mean you should device ways to evade tax or hope for unreasonable freebies because why should only you suffer. I paid taxes on my salary & never once complained about increased fuel prices or service tax anywhere, I simply cut back my other expenses which meant sacrificing some personal pleasures.

One last thing I would like to add because I have seen it here & on many other platforms. If you can't trust your own people to run business(aka every scam is now adani & ambani related) then why the hell would you trust them to run govt or do you think dna of Indian businessmen is somehow different from dna of common Indian people. Sure there are bad businessmen but then in which field of humanity there are no bad people. A country which can't even have faith in its own people is doomed to be in mediocrity for ever. If India continues on this same path then 50 years from now it is India who will be playing a lackey's role to China's supreme position in the world.